Living in the UK and working in the financial sector, it feels like it's all Brexit and Trump at the moment, interspersed with some economic data and a bit of central bank action. Although the…
Time to be Bullish on the US Dollar?
The US Dollar has certainly been on the back foot for the last three months, as can be seen in chart 1 below, showing the performance of the Broad Trade Weighted Dollar. However, the picture…
The Battle Between Goldilocks and Cerberus
The performance of equity markets since mid-February has been simply stunning. Against a backdrop of dramatically weaker corporate earnings, weak economic growth and simmering macro concerns, risk assets have barely missed a beat in their…
A Tour of Financial Markets
We have been looking for the end of the risk rally for a few weeks now. US equity and credit markets have been the most robust and have so far refused to rollover. Elsewhere, we…
Long Term Issues Dominate Sterling – It’s not just about Brexit
The UK finds itself in a very uncomfortable position at the moment. Although most of the scary headlines recently have surrounded the question of whether we vote to leave the EU or not, we see…
Corporate Earnings and Capital Flows are the Focus for the Weeks Ahead
Although markets seemed to really quieten down ahead of the long Easter weekend, there was still enough happening and enough on the near horizon to keep us on our toes. Rather than dive into a long essay…
Time to be Bearish Again as the Reflation Trade is Topping
The rally in risk assets has been fast and furious in the last five weeks. Back on 14th February, we said “we certainly see the potential for a bit of a bounce if the "animal spirits"…
How Will Markets React to the ECB’s Last Bullet?
Back on 12th December (in our note titled “Some Dangerous Signals Appear in Financial Markets”, see here, we outlined what we thought were two potential scenarios for 2016. In the note, we said ”…we believe…
What is Priced in to the ECB Meeting This Week?
Financial markets have enjoyed a very robust recovery in the last three weeks. In our opinion, the rally has not been driven by any fundamental improvement in economic growth or corporate or emerging market prospects.…
Policymakers and Markets Face a Critical Period
Despite a bounce in risk assets in the last two weeks, February has been pretty brutal for many investors. Yes, losses are a lot less than those seen at mid-month, but long term confidence in…
Big Picture Thoughts on Financial Markets
In an attempt to keep an open mind on the future outcome for the global economy and financial markets, we thought we would share some thoughts and see how they fit into the economic and…
The Concept of a Long Term Bear Market
We were initially going to have a bit of a rant about how Central Bank policies are not just ineffective at generating sustained economic growth, but how investors appear to be revolting against said policies…
Recession Risks are Rising and Equities are Vulnerable
Equity markets certainly decided to look at the negatives from the US employment report released at the end of last week. That does not happen in bull markets. On the surface, and ignoring a few…
Yet Another Central Bank Inspired Rally
Although markets ended the month on a more positive note, January was not kind for many investors. The current rally that began over a week ago is yet again predicated on more unconventional central…
Central Banks Face Difficult Choices in a Changing Investment Environment
When we started writing this weeks’ commentary, we did not realise how long it would be. We hope that you find it interesting, as we truly believe that we touch upon the most important…
Markets are at a Tipping Point
Our work indicates that financial markets are at a tipping point and policymakers are probably getting very worried. After significant downward moves for equity markets and bond yields in the first two weeks of…
A Disastrous Start to 2016….What Next?
Happy New Year to all our readers. We promised late last year that we would update our views in the new year. There is a lot to discuss and we will have to break…
It was a Rollercoaster Week that Ended on a Down Note
This will be the last investment report for 2015. It has certainly been a more challenging year for investors across all assets. We wish all of our readers a very happy Christmas and New…
Dangerous Signals Appear in Financial Markets
We held our quarterly investment meeting last week (please see the chart pack at www.rmginvestment.com/investment-bulletins), and as you would expect, in both preparing for the meeting and in discussion during the meeting, we thrashed…