Battle Lines Are Being Drawn

We have regularly discussed our multi-month topping thesis in the last three months (and a few times last year – prematurely as it turned out), and price action in recent weeks has done nothing to…

Some Charts That Are Catching Our Eye

We thought we would have a look at a few charts this week that are catching our eye or have piqued our interest. So, less words this week and more pictures; which should make it…

The Big Waiting Game on the US Economy

It feels very much like a big waiting game at the moment. Economically the consensus became very excited about synchronised global growth as 2017 ended, and of course the US tax cuts were supposed to…

Another Goldilocks Employment Report

Just when equity markets needed an extra boost, the US released yet another “Goldilocks” employment report. Strong jobs growth surely indicates a strong economy; great news for corporate profits that are being turbo-charged by the…

Signs of Short Term Improvement in Bond Markets

Having raised the specter of higher bond yields in recent months, we think that the market is showing signs that there may be some short term reprieve. If correct, and having said several times in…

Surely Not Straight Up Again?

Equity markets, having reached short term oversold levels that even we identified last week, have rallied very smartly in the last week or so. This rally is very similar to other V-shaped rallies we have…

Consider Last Week’s Correction a Clear Warning

We suspect that most experienced investors fully expected a correction in equity markets at some point (markets don’t go up in a straight line forever), however the ferocity and damage caused by the recent sell…

The Dollar May Be Down But Is It Out?

So far in 2018 we have tried to be fairly flexible with our thinking on the US Dollar. Fundamentally, we could quite easily build a bullish case as much as we could build a bearish…

An Equity Market Update

As we head towards the end of 2017, we all naturally begin to think about the year ahead and what it may hold. For us, the real surprise in 2017 was the continued re-rating of…

Our Base Case Scenario

Our base case scenario remains unchanged. We think that the post Global Financial Crisis economic recovery is now in the late cycle stage. The US is the most mature, and naturally the Federal Reserve is…