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What should the last month have taught investors?
Ben Kumar, Investment Manager, Seven Investment Management Someone once told me that on average, we won’t remember 10% of what we read, 20% of what we see and 30% of what we hear. There is…
Risk of Policy Error Clearly Rising – Some Key Charts and Index Levels
What a difference a few weeks make. At the end of January, financial markets were melting up, commentators were salivating over the US tax cuts within an environment of global synchronised economic growth. Investors of…
Taking AIM
"Come back and see me when your market cap is £100m". A phrase commonly heard by the management teams of smaller companies. To some degree, risk, liquidity and time-management makes this understandable but we believe…
The outlook for VCTs
Demand for VCTs in the 2017-2018 tax year has been very strong. From 6th April 2017 to 31st January 2018 VCTs have raised £483 million, more than double the £221 million raised from 6th April…
Signs of Short Term Improvement in Bond Markets
Having raised the specter of higher bond yields in recent months, we think that the market is showing signs that there may be some short term reprieve. If correct, and having said several times in…
February: aggressive US Treasury selloff is historically a buying opportunity For Professional Investors Only
People talk of the 2013 ‘taper tantrum’ as the modern-day equivalent of the enormous 1994 bond rout, where both occasions saw the Federal Reserve unexpectedly communicate a significant change in monetary policy. But the Treasury…
Surely Not Straight Up Again?
Equity markets, having reached short term oversold levels that even we identified last week, have rallied very smartly in the last week or so. This rally is very similar to other V-shaped rallies we have…
Week in Review: US bonds: shaken and stirred
Higher US inflation sparked a sell-off in bonds this week. Investors’ fear of an overheating US economy increased this week as the US government reported that consumer prices rose more quickly in January than analysts…
Shifting Sands
Alex Scott, Chief Strategist, Seven Investment Management (7IM) We suspected that a rise in market volatility was likely in 2018 – but of course, no-one knew how or when it would play out. That risk…
Week in Review: Meltdown!
It’s been a while, but share-price volatility is back – and how! This week, the world’s main equity markets plunged sharply on Monday, bounced briefly mid-week, then slumped again on Thursday. The S&P 500’s 4.1%…
A Reality Check
Alex Scott, Chief Strategist, Seven Investment Management (7IM) For the first time in over a year, markets have fallen sharply. Keeping a cool head about markets is important when others are panicking. We believe that…
Week in Review: A shared future
All eyes were on Davos, a small town in the Swiss Alps, as world leaders, business people and other VIPs congregated to share perspectives on the theme of “Creating a Shared Future in a Fractured…
VIDEO MARKETS UPDATE – JANUARY 2018
In this update, Mark Whitehead, Portfolio Manager, assesses the change in US federal income tax and opportunities for dividend growth in the tech sector. WHAT CAUGHT YOUR EYE THIS MONTH? In the US, the first…
Are choppier waters ahead?
Alex Scott, Chief Strategist, Seven Investment Management In many ways, 2017 was far better than expected. The global economy certainly performed ahead of expectations, showing decisive and synchronised growth for the first time in several…
Week in Review: One in the eye
“When a man is tired of London, he is tired of life,” said Samuel Johnson. The legendary lexicographer might have been speaking of bankers (both male and female), as comments this week indicated that reports…
2018 – a year for active management
2017 saw a previously US-centric and relatively anaemic economic recovery from the financial crisis broaden out and gain vigour. The Trump presidency has so far proved to be mostly bun and no beef, while the…
Gilts – The Bear Market has Begun
The Gilt index is an important benchmark for most UK fixed income investors, whatever their risk appetite. 2017 was a year of modest returns (+2% for the iBoxx Gilt index) but the fact is that…
Week in Review: The only way is up
It’s all getting a bit tiresome, isn’t it? Many global stock markets hit yet another succession of fresh highs this week. The strongest returns came from Asian markets, with the MSCI Pacific Index up 1.4%.…