Summary In a Q&A with Neil Dwane, Christiaan Tuntono says China will likely agree to reduce the trade deficit and support IP protections, but not roll back “Made in China 2025”. Mona Mahajan thinks an…
Emerging Markets double digit returns for 2019? For Professional Investors Only
What should we expect this year? At the start of each year we consider our return forecasts for Emerging Market assets over the next 12 months, in order to frame our expectations for taking active…
What investors need to know as Brexit nears For Professional Investors Only
As the date of the UK’s planned exit from the EU approaches, there’s an increased probability the Prime Minister will win support for her Brexit deal. But a “no-deal” scenario cannot be ruled out –…
Are trade headlines hiding a ‘tech cold war’? For Professional Investors Only
If trade tensions continue, the US and China could lock each other out and create their own tech ecosystems, forcing the rest of the world to choose one over the other. With the global economy…
The unintended consequences of saving the world from the financial crisis For Professional Investors Only
The response of central banks to the financial crisis 10 years ago may have saved the world from a devastating depression, but it also created a host of unforeseen effects – from more indebtedness to…
Finding the sweet spots in credit
Matthew Chaldecott, Fixed Income Product Specialist, discusses how to target the ideal portfolio mix in the current credit environment. As we near the end of 2018, we have finally started moving away from accommodative monetary…
Equity market setbacks are normal
The recent US equity market setback seems to be little more than a wobble. The global economy is not in recession, although it is slowing down, and monetary policy is still accommodative across the board.…
Graphic content – September; is Trump right to want a lower oil price? For Professional Investors Only
Recent tweets by President Donald Trump have berated OPEC (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) for their role in contributing to higher oil prices. Given the disruption to the global economic and political system in…
Beware inflation, which lurks before it spikes For Professional Investors Only
Investors shouldn’t get complacent about inflation: we may not see an early return to historic levels, but conditions are ripe for an unexpected rise. To fight the erosion of their purchasing power, investors should consider…
Return of the stock-picker’s market For Professional Investors Only
Summary Many equity investors are grappling with how to invest in today’s market, when volatility has increased yet valuations are still high. For answers, we asked Portfolio Managers Lucy Macdonald and Karen Hiatt – two…
February: aggressive US Treasury selloff is historically a buying opportunity For Professional Investors Only
People talk of the 2013 ‘taper tantrum’ as the modern-day equivalent of the enormous 1994 bond rout, where both occasions saw the Federal Reserve unexpectedly communicate a significant change in monetary policy. But the Treasury…
‘Yield beta’ – perhaps the most important consideration if you own any inflation-linked bonds For Professional Investors Only
Many investors have exposure to inflation-linked bonds, whether it’s within a diversified fixed income portfolio or a multi asset portfolio. The difficulty is that inflation-linked bonds and conventional bonds behave differently. Inflation-linked bonds provide you…
Underlying fragility of the US corporate sector For Professional Investors Only
Written by Mike Riddell As we’ve mentioned in recent months, total risk premia on US corporate bonds is at its lowest level ever. Meanwhile, the debt that US corporates have loaded onto their balance sheets has steadily…
2018 Outlook: Guard against real-world inflation For Professional Investors Only
Summary The gradual reversal of expansionary monetary policies – at differing paces globally – will require some investors to adjust their approaches. Protecting purchasing power will remain a priority as official inflation understates real-world costs.…
December; UK wage growth is about to surge For Professional Investors Only
As in many countries, wage growth in the UK has been missing in action, even as the unemployment rate has fallen to a 42-year low. Any sign of sustained wage growth therefore has the potential…
Graphic Content – November; corporate bond risk premia are now the lowest ever For Professional Investors Only
Risk premia on a corporate bond can be broken down into two component parts. The first is the term premium, which relates to the risk premium on an underlying government bond, and is the extra…
Bernanke’s latest monetary policy framework isn’t novel – it’s 90 years old For Professional Investors Only
Recently Ben Bernanke proposed a new framework for inflation targeting and monetary policy setting when interest rates are at the zero-lower bound (ZLB), exploring the idea that the Federal Reserve (Fed) should aim at price-level…
The Bank of England prepares for a historic hike – is it jumping the gun? For Professional Investors Only
November 2, 2017 may go down as a historic day: it could be the first time in 3,773 days that the Bank of England raises the base rate. Of course, this is not the first…
Actively Riding the Wave of ‘Creative Disruption’ For Professional Investors Only
Inspired by economist Joseph Schumpeter’s concept of “creative destruction”, the unspoken theme of Allianz Global Investors’ most recent Investment Forum seemed to be “creative disruption”. Session topics devoted to three types of disruption – technological,…