Living in the UK and working in the financial sector, it feels like it's all Brexit and Trump at the moment, interspersed with some economic data and a bit of central bank action. Although the…
Oil Prices Collapsing Amidst Political Problems in the Middle East
We last wrote about oil on 23 April in which we said “With the best will in the World, OPEC and Non OPEC production cuts are barely making a dent in bloated stockpiles and there…
A Quick Review of Central Bank Activity
After a number of central bank meetings and speeches, we thought we would take a quick look at what happened. We are on the road this weekend, and so this week’s commentary is both shorter…
Weighing the Risks for the UK
Although I am sure that you have had your fill of the UK election, we do feel the need to start off with a quick comment on our outlook for Sterling especially as the biggest…
Are US Equities Entering the Death Zone?
We were on the road in Switzerland this week, and as we travelled along the northern shores of Lake Geneva, the view across to the French Alps is simply stunning. Many market commentators will describe…
Equity Market Thoughts
The flavour of our equity market comments in the last couple of months have been focused on the US which we believe to be in the third bubble of the last 20 years. We have…
Gentlemen Prefer Bonds
Last week, we promised a more detailed explanation of our current market views. We want to concentrate this week on bonds, where frankly we believe price action makes more sense than in equity markets. To…
Central Banks are Changing Gears
We have talked about central bank policies extensively in recent years, and let’s face it, it’s a really dry subject. Unfortunately for us, Central Banks remain very important actors in the financial markets, and subtle…
Signs of Stress are Building, Hinting at Trouble in the Second Half of 2017
6th May 2017 Due to last minute weekend travel plans, this week’s note is shorter than usual with fewer charts. This is somewhat unfortunate, as there are a number of little developments that when added…
Property Bubbles Everywhere As If It Were 2007 Again
We are going to focus this week on two stories from the property market; one in Canada and one back home here in the UK. Property market analysis is not exactly the main focus of…
The Oil Price Decline is Important and Just One of Our Long Term Concerns
Since before the Brexit vote in June last year, politics has become a more important force in the day to day life of financial markets. In theory, the political events that are known offer up…
Focus Remains on US and Trump
It feels like the market’s focus remains far too heavily skewed to what’s happening in the US, and despite our best efforts to discover the next important narrative, we keep coming back to the US.…
The Fed’s Message Turns Aggressive
They say that economic recoveries don’t simply die of old age. Typically, the Fed has been the actor that has tipped mature economic recoveries over the edge. There is a lot that could be said…
Leaning Against the Inflation/Reflation Trade
This commentary does focus on the state of the potential reflation trade at quarter end and our suspicion it won’t work out as some investors hope. We have also written on India as the end…
Political Events Force a Reality Check on the Trump Reflation Trade
After an extraordinary week in US politics, let’s take a step back here and try and assess what’s going on. At the recent peak in the S&P 500, the index had risen about 15% from…
Brief Market Update
We’re not sure there is much to add in terms of market update this week. In FX and fixed income, it appears to have been a classic buy the rumour and sell the fact around…
Central Bank Nuances and Economic Growth Plans
Everyone is trying to understand the nuances of central bank communications – indeed, this has been a decades long pastime. In recent years, the parsing of communications was for signs of how much more extraordinary…
Charts That Make You Go Hmmmm! STOP PRESS
First, apologies to Grant Williams, author of “Thoughts that make you go hmmm!” for bastardising the name of his research letter. We sit here running out of superlatives to describe the majesty of the rise…
The Confluence of Price, Momentum, Sentiment and Positioning is Very Interesting
With fixed income and FX markets just showing signs that the Trump reflation trade is at risk of faltering, next week sees some important speeches. On Tuesday, President Trump will address The House in what…