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The Centre Holds
Alex Scott, Deputy Chief Investment Officer. 11 May 2017. Investor attention has been dominated by political risk for the best part of a year. Now, however we see signs that we might be passing the…
Brazil Tests Investors’ Nerves
Latin America’s largest economy is suffering its worst recession on record and the deepest corruption scandal in its history. Yet investors piled into the Brazilian stockmarket last year when it became clear the market-friendly Temer…
The best stockpickers in the universe
Background Last year was a shocker for active managers. Nine out of ten of them failed to beat their benchmarks according to the annual S&P Dow Jones review of active management. Fund managers are an…
Where’s the clever money going? May 2017
April was an eventful month: among other things, the tax year ended, the prime minister called a snap election for 8 June, and the Brexit posturing became increasingly vitriolic. Meanwhile across the Channel, the French…
Signs of Stress are Building, Hinting at Trouble in the Second Half of 2017
6th May 2017 Due to last minute weekend travel plans, this week’s note is shorter than usual with fewer charts. This is somewhat unfortunate, as there are a number of little developments that when added…
Week in review: May polls
While coloured ribbons are something of a spring tradition in parts of the UK, they’re more commonly seen hanging from the top of a maypole, ready for dancers to weave around it. But this week,…
2016: The year active management failed?
The active versus passive debate has raged on for more than a decade now as costs of trackers continue to fall. While much of the debate is merely a matter of opinion, the increased focus…
Interview with Costa Rica’s Minister of Foreign Trade, Alexander Mora
What has your ministry done to boost Costa Rican exports? Minister Mora: The first achievement that we can claim is that this government has accelerated the process for Costa Rica to become a full member…
Property Bubbles Everywhere As If It Were 2007 Again
We are going to focus this week on two stories from the property market; one in Canada and one back home here in the UK. Property market analysis is not exactly the main focus of…
Week in review: on the hustings
And then there were two. The first round of the French presidential election on Sunday failed to deliver an overall majority for any of the 11 candidates, meaning there will be a 7 May run-off…
Why the old adage to sell in May is flawed
By Justin Urquhart Stewart, Co-founder. 25 April 2017. “Events, dear boy, events” was Prime Minister Harold Macmillan’s infamous reply when asked what the most difficult thing about his job was. In other words, stuff happens…
The Oil Price Decline is Important and Just One of Our Long Term Concerns
Since before the Brexit vote in June last year, politics has become a more important force in the day to day life of financial markets. In theory, the political events that are known offer up…
Week in Review: May changes her tune
It seems rarely a week goes by without politics taking centre stage. This week started with the fallout from last weekend’s Turkish referendum, followed by the announcement of a snap general election in the UK,…
Asia: It’s the consumer
- Asia looked vulnerable in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory, but to date his impact has been limited - The growth of the consumer has been a far more exciting part of the Asian…
Focus Remains on US and Trump
It feels like the market’s focus remains far too heavily skewed to what’s happening in the US, and despite our best efforts to discover the next important narrative, we keep coming back to the US.…
Chart-catching – Hire or Lower?
THE PRICE OF US USED CARS, THE HEALTH OF THEIR MAKERS AND CONFIDENCE OF THEIR DRIVERS. Having been flat for several years, US used car values are now falling. The move is significant enough to…
Week in Review: investors seek refuge in safe havens
Traditional safe haven investments such as gold, US Treasuries and the Japanese yen were all boosted by growing worries about the global geopolitical climate this week. The yield on the 10–year Treasury fell to 2.3%…
A less imperfect solution: Investment trusts and income
Company dividends are under pressure, with positive currency effects fading and dividend cover falling There is dividend growth to be found, but investors will need to look a little harder The investment trust structure allows…