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Beyond emerging: Looking to the frontiers
Global economic growth may be accelerating, but stock market prices largely reflect this good news This may mean hunting elsewhere for investments that still have the capacity for stronger growth. Emerging markets may be one…
Week in review: markets riding high
It has been a good week for markets. The FTSE 100 index and the S&P 500 touched new highs during the week, and there were also gains for Asian and European markets. Japan’s Nikkei 225…
Will China’s New Silk Road Reach Latin America?
Chile and Argentina have had their fair share of spats but both countries clearly agree that China’s new ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative is important for Latin America. The presidents of the two southern cone neighbours…
Week in review: a resilient week for markets
The terrorist attack in Manchester on Monday evening led to an increase in the UK’s terror alert level, which was raised to ‘critical’, meaning the authorities expect further incidents to be imminent. The effect on…
Bonds Are Different: Active Versus Passive Management in 12 Points For Professional Investors Only
Opinions in the active-passive investment debate have drifted poles apart over recent years. We revisit this discussion by contrasting equity and bonds. We look at performance numbers and find that, unlike their stock counterparts, active…
Gentlemen Prefer Bonds
Last week, we promised a more detailed explanation of our current market views. We want to concentrate this week on bonds, where frankly we believe price action makes more sense than in equity markets. To…
Summertime, and the living is NOT easy
HISTORY SUGGESTS THAT WE SHOULD BE IN CASH UNTIL THE AUTUMN. WE CONSIDER IF THAT IS THE WISE IN 2017. The investment world seems to be a big fan of pithy bon mots. One is…
Week in review: Come what May
“We do not believe in untrammelled free markets.” Perhaps an unlikely proclamation from a Conservative leader, but these words were uttered by UK Prime Minister Theresa May when launching the party’s general election manifesto. Mrs…
Central Banks are Changing Gears
We have talked about central bank policies extensively in recent years, and let’s face it, it’s a really dry subject. Unfortunately for us, Central Banks remain very important actors in the financial markets, and subtle…
Week in Review – Phoning it in
Global equity investors started the week with a spring in their step, as Emmanuel Macron’s victory in Sunday’s final round of the French presidential election settled nerves in the Eurozone. But the defeat of Marine…
The best stockpickers in the universe
Background Last year was a shocker for active managers. Nine out of ten of them failed to beat their benchmarks according to the annual S&P Dow Jones review of active management. Fund managers are an…
Signs of Stress are Building, Hinting at Trouble in the Second Half of 2017
6th May 2017 Due to last minute weekend travel plans, this week’s note is shorter than usual with fewer charts. This is somewhat unfortunate, as there are a number of little developments that when added…
Property Bubbles Everywhere As If It Were 2007 Again
We are going to focus this week on two stories from the property market; one in Canada and one back home here in the UK. Property market analysis is not exactly the main focus of…
The Oil Price Decline is Important and Just One of Our Long Term Concerns
Since before the Brexit vote in June last year, politics has become a more important force in the day to day life of financial markets. In theory, the political events that are known offer up…
Week in Review: investors seek refuge in safe havens
Traditional safe haven investments such as gold, US Treasuries and the Japanese yen were all boosted by growing worries about the global geopolitical climate this week. The yield on the 10–year Treasury fell to 2.3%…
Markets don’t die of old age
Alex Scott, Deputy Chief Investment Officer. 12 April 2017. Investors seem to be a little less convinced about reflation trades now than they did at the turn of the year. Back then the rise in…
The Fed’s Message Turns Aggressive
They say that economic recoveries don’t simply die of old age. Typically, the Fed has been the actor that has tipped mature economic recoveries over the edge. There is a lot that could be said…
Week in Review: Trump meets Xi
Thursday saw US President Donald Trump welcome his Chinese equivalent, President Xi Jinping. It was the first time the two have met face to face: a blind date, if you like, albeit one with global…