<!-- Paste this whole block into a WordPress post body. It mixes: - Instream video (JW Player) powered by Prebid.js - Two display units using existing Dianomi smartadIds Notes: - Uses the Prebid "not-for-prod" bundle…
Central Bank Policy Divergence – The Impact on the Dollar
Before we dive into this week’s missive, this will be our last commentary before Christmas. We may try and write a short commentary between Christmas and New Year if market movements warrant one. We wish…
Week in review: a creditable performance
The attention of European investors was again focused on Italy’s troubled banks. But for once there was some reason for cheer. Unicredit, Italy’s biggest bank, announced a radical restructuring plan to help shore up its…
Equity Bulls in Charge as ECB Makes Way for the Fed
Having spent the second half of last week on the road meeting investors, I have not yet managed to catch up on all the nitty gritty of what happened at the coal face. This is…
Week in review: shock absorbers
After Brexit and Trump, investors have grown used to shocks – especially of the political variety. And in any case, it was widely accepted that Italian voters might use Sunday’s referendum to reject the constitutional…
Risk
“ Life is not an illogicality; yet it is a trap for logicians. It looks just a little more mathematical and regular than it is; its exactitude is obvious, but its inexactitude is hidden; its…
Oil and the Dollar Dominate Thoughts as We Wait for Italy to Decide
It’s been a busy week already with OPEC announcing its first production cut in 8 years, the usual monthly US employment report and the build up towards the Italian referendum this weekend. These are all…
Week in review: Spending pledge boosts growth forecasts
It was a week where the world eagerly awaited further details of the incoming Trump administration. A slew of appointments from the world of high finance - including Goldman Sachs veteran Steven Mnuchin as treasury…
Big Picture Thoughts on Equities
With equity investors jumping on the Trump bandwagon, pushing the S&P 500 up by 3.5% since just prior to the election, we thought we would share some of our long term, bigger picture thoughts on…
Fortune favours the brave
It is well known that technology funds offer the potential for punchy returns, but they are also regarded as very volatile investments - a characteristic that we were reminded of last week when 'The Donald'…
Political Change Has Led to Market Excess – What Next?
There really have been some extraordinary market moves since Donald Trump became President elect a bit less than two weeks ago. According to Bloomberg, the last two weeks have seen; Global bonds poised for biggest…
US Reflation: Trump Style
Last week in “Peering past the election”, we outlined a potential reflationary period ahead that could either be elegant or disorderly. Clearly the market views Trump as more reflationary than Clinton would have been, judging…
Week in Review: Trump towers over America
As Wednesday morning broke, the news that few expected to hear resounded from TVs, radios and frenzied social media posts. Against all odds, Donald J Trump, billionaire businessman and political newcomer had beaten his rival…
Looking Past the Election
To the relief of many, the US election should be over by this time next week. Not only will the US have a new President, but we will know who controls Congress and the Senate.…
Week in Review: order, order!
Fasten your seatbelt, folks. Despite the UK’s vote to leave the European Union back in June, the High Court has ruled that the Government does not have power to trigger Article 50 without parliamentary approval.…
Crunch Time in Bond Markets Make Equities Vulnerable
Since the post Brexit plunge in bond yields, we have been becoming more negative on bonds. Along with virtually everyone, except central bankers, we have been banging the drum of how insane negative bond yields…
Week in Review: More trick than treat
Technology companies have been getting into the Halloween spirit this reporting season. Tech giant Apple was flattered by some trickery in their third quarter results, having released the new iPhone seven days earlier than normal…
Can the world cope with a resurgent dollar?
There is no doubt that big swings in the value of the US Dollar have a big impact on global economic growth and also financial markets performances. Between June 2014 and January 2016, as the…
Sterling Getting Trashed – What Happens Next?
After another horrible week for Sterling on the foreign exchange markets, it has become all too easy to be overly bearish. There can be little doubt that the UK faces unprecedented political challenges in exiting…