Like the UK, Latin America has suffered greatly during the pandemic – perhaps even more so. The World Bank estimates that regional GDP may slip by as much as 8%, with more than four million…
Ranges Have to Break at Some Point
Last week, we set out the case for being constructive on the US Dollar. Although the resilience of the Dollar in the face of weak data is impressive, in reality the Dollar, along with bonds…
Week in review: taxing times
It’s been another interesting week with Apple the latest multinational company to be accused of tax dodging. In market news, European inflation failed to accelerate in August, adding to concerns about the economic outlook ahead…
Week in review: Political Olympics
Just four days after the closing ceremony of the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympics, the final proceedings in the impeachment of Brazil’s former President Dilma Rousseff began. Re-appointed by the Brazilian electorate less than two…
The Market’s Reaction to Jackson Hole Demands Attention
Before we get on to the events of Jackson Hole and their impact on bonds and FX, we just wanted to pick up on where we left last week. We outlined some initial thoughts about…
Current Economic Thinking May Need to Change
Having taken my family holiday in July, I had actually been hoping that August would see a pick-up in volatility and offer some trading opportunities. However, with trading ranges compressed and the post Brexit rally…
Week in review: League of nations
As the Rio Olympics draw to a close, newspapers and television alike are obsessing about Team GB’s place in the medal table. Will we outrank China? Celebrating individual excellence seems to have taken second place…
Hot property
Background Unless you’ve been in a cupboard for the last month or so you will be aware that property funds have taken a beating since the surprise result of the EU referendum in June. By…
Week in review: Her name is Rio …
It was all eyes on Rio de Janeiro this week, as the Games of the XXXI Olympiad got into full swing. As is now traditional at such celebrations of human sporting prowess, the efforts of…
A Quiet Week but There is Always Something to Look Out For
Not only were financial markets extremely quiet last week, but the recent trend of every asset going up whilst the US Dollar nudges down remained intact. With trading volumes very much in holiday mode, we…
Long-termism
Concerns about short-termism in markets, government thinking and corporate strategy have only increased in the wake of the global financial crisis and the resulting levels of uncertainty surrounding investor and business behaviour have led to…
A Positive Cocktail for Risk Assets – Can it get any better?
Another dovish central bank and another strong US employment report, and investors are tripping over themselves to increase risk in their portfolios. With many now also focusing on holidays, the next few weeks are likely…
India: The Giant Awakens
This is indeed India! The land of dreams and romance, of fabulous wealth and fabulous poverty, of splendour and rags, of palaces and hovels, of famine and pestilence, of genii and giants and Aladdin lamps,…
Week in review: Desperate times
On Wednesday the result of the most wide-ranging survey of British businesses since the Brexit vote was released. The purchasing managers’ index showed the sharpest fall in business activity for 20 years, and follows a…
China: finding the next growth engine
The Chinese economy is likely to be subdued over the medium term, but pockets of growth and potential remain. Nicholas Yeo, Head of Equities, China and Hong Kong, explains.
Ecuador Goes to Market
Ecuador tapped international debt markets with a $1billion bond issue. The money comes at a vital time for the earthquake-hit economy that is trapped between low oil prices and the high dollar. The 10.75% coupon…
Simplicity
Simplicity is not just a business and regulatory imperative. Investor revulsion at the global financial crisis has led to a renaissance for simplicity. Certainly the complicated mathematical models so beloved in some quarters of finance…
A Very Important Juncture for Central Banks and the Economy
We want to try and cover a few areas this week. According to the headline data, the US economy remained weak in Q2 and the European economy slowed a bit. There are grounds for both…
Week in review: the last “hurrah”
The FTSE 100 index broke through 6,700 this week, hitting a one-year high and closing at 6,712 at Thursday’s close. Meanwhile, the domestically focused FTSE 250 has near enough erased its post-Brexit losses. Investors were…