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Looking for a Turn in Government Bonds and the Japanese Yen
In quite a few ways, recent weeks have been anything but boring. Trying to filter out important events from random noise in markets today feels like a bit of a mugs game, but that shouldn’t…
The Cost of Sanity is Being a Patsy
Albert Einstein is widely credited with saying “the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting different results”. The laws of physics dictate that a particular phenomenon will always…
Global Central Banks Continue to Distort Markets
Markets really have been on a roller coaster ride since the Brexit vote. Major equity indices have enjoyed a remarkable rally the last few days predicated we believe on hopes for a further round of…
Ruffer Investment Company
Summary Ruffer Investment Company is an unusual investment trust focused squarely on absolute returns. It invests primarily in ‘long only’ assets – equities and bonds – but also uses currencies and derivatives as part of…
The Continuing Story of Central Bank Failure
We have been meaning to write an in depth report on central bank policies for some time and the market responses to recent BoJ policy decisions as well as the Fed meeting and press conference…
Data Dependent US Central Bank Just Found Life More Difficult
Two weeks ago in our note titled “Markets have to adjust as Fed alters course”, we said the following; “…The Fed is continuously worried about upsetting financial markets if they remove the punch bowl. They…
Picking the Low Hanging Fruit
Anyone who has got to know our views over the last 12 months or so has probably heard us talking about trying to pick low hanging fruit. By this, we obviously mean that we wish…
Viva la revolucion
Gold, oil and house prices have, at different times, all been viewed as a one way bet by British investors, but the goldbugs hoping for a rebound have been disappointed for many years and those forecasting…
Patience Needed as Investors Seek Instant Gratification
As most of us know, trying to predict financial markets is frustrating nearly all of the time, and downright impossible too much of the time. Part of the problem is that everyone wants instant gratification.…
Week in review: triumphant Trump
“It will change. We will have so much winning if I get elected that you may get bored with winning. Believe me.” Well, well, well - it certainly has changed. Whether we get bored of…
Market review: inertia – gaining momentum?
“Even if you’re on the right track, you’ll get run over if you just sit there.” Will Rogers (1879-1935) Mr Rogers was a man of multiple talents – Depression-era humourist, newspaper columnist, political commentator, vaudevillian…
Time to be Bullish on the US Dollar?
The US Dollar has certainly been on the back foot for the last three months, as can be seen in chart 1 below, showing the performance of the Broad Trade Weighted Dollar. However, the picture…
The Battle Between Goldilocks and Cerberus
The performance of equity markets since mid-February has been simply stunning. Against a backdrop of dramatically weaker corporate earnings, weak economic growth and simmering macro concerns, risk assets have barely missed a beat in their…
Twists, turns and bumps in the road
Investors seemed to breathe a sigh of relief when the US Federal Reserve finally announced a rise in interest rates at the end of 2015. Stock markets across the world enjoyed a much needed end-of-year…
A Tour of Financial Markets
We have been looking for the end of the risk rally for a few weeks now. US equity and credit markets have been the most robust and have so far refused to rollover. Elsewhere, we…
Week in review: muted Easter markets
We bring you a shortened week in review to mark the end of this four-day working week as we move into Easter. But the holiday weekend has been overshadowed by Tuesday’s terrorist attacks in Belgium,…
Investment trusts continue to deliver
Global equity investors had a mixed year in 2015, with varying performances across global markets. The Japanese market produced the strongest returns, with the Topix up 12% in yen terms, while European equities saw decent…
Time to be Bearish Again as the Reflation Trade is Topping
The rally in risk assets has been fast and furious in the last five weeks. Back on 14th February, we said “we certainly see the potential for a bit of a bounce if the "animal spirits"…