By Fran Radano, Senior Investment Manager, The North American Income Trust plc Steady global growth ahead if trade negotiations produce a positive settlement.Bank valuations remain too low following de-risking, low defaults and good quality loan…
Underlying fragility of the US corporate sector For Professional Investors Only
Written by Mike Riddell As we’ve mentioned in recent months, total risk premia on US corporate bonds is at its lowest level ever. Meanwhile, the debt that US corporates have loaded onto their balance sheets has steadily…
Myths about the US market
Active investors in North America face a number of persistent myths: The first, and most common, is that it is impossible to beat the US market. Many continue to believe that there is little mispricing…
“Central Bankers Face a Crisis of Confidence as Models Fail”
The title of this week’s commentary is the title of an FT article published at the end of last week as monetary authorities gather in Washington for the annual meetings of the IMF and World…
What the Trump tax plan means for investors For Professional Investors Only
Summary On 27 September, President Trump announced the “framework” for comprehensive US tax reform. Passing the bill will not be easy, but it could simplify the current tax code, increase economic growth and support the…
Pulling the Trigger on the Bullish Dollar Trade
It was quite a busy week with plenty of news flow, but also some very interesting price moves which have our attention. We have discussed the US Dollar a few times in recent weeks, and…
A summer of quiet contemplation For Professional Investors Only
The US Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise rates at its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Tuesday. However, it will be interesting to see the FOMC’s view on why inflation figures in the…
From Low Volatility to No Volatility
Just when we thought that it couldn’t get any worse for traders, markets have almost come to a standstill. Simply put, unless price actually moves, traders cannot make any money. And so it is with…
Are US Equities Entering the Death Zone?
We were on the road in Switzerland this week, and as we travelled along the northern shores of Lake Geneva, the view across to the French Alps is simply stunning. Many market commentators will describe…
Equity Market Thoughts
The flavour of our equity market comments in the last couple of months have been focused on the US which we believe to be in the third bubble of the last 20 years. We have…
Focus Remains on US and Trump
It feels like the market’s focus remains far too heavily skewed to what’s happening in the US, and despite our best efforts to discover the next important narrative, we keep coming back to the US.…
Chart-catching – Hire or Lower?
THE PRICE OF US USED CARS, THE HEALTH OF THEIR MAKERS AND CONFIDENCE OF THEIR DRIVERS. Having been flat for several years, US used car values are now falling. The move is significant enough to…
Brief Market Update
We’re not sure there is much to add in terms of market update this week. In FX and fixed income, it appears to have been a classic buy the rumour and sell the fact around…
The Maths of Economics – Trump’s Trade Policies Could be a Disaster
Since Brexit, there has been a growing debate about the usefulness of current economic thinking. The basic story seems to be that the economics community broadly failed to forecast the 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent…
The Trump trade may be close to an end – A round up of Markets
We wish everyone a happy New Year, and with the FX and rates markets entering the year with a bit of a bang, there is a lot to get through this week. We will try…
Week in review: Trump sinks his teeth in
‘Brexit’ and ‘Trump’ have continued to fill news headlines with the US president elect announcing the first high-profile appointments of his administration. Meanwhile, a leaked memo from Deloitte claimed the UK government has no overall…
Trump in the driving seat: where should you steer your cash?
The world is busy trying to digest the shock outcome of the US election and the possible implications of Donald Trump’s presidency both for the US economy and more broadly for global prosperity. There are…
Week in Review: Trump towers over America
As Wednesday morning broke, the news that few expected to hear resounded from TVs, radios and frenzied social media posts. Against all odds, Donald J Trump, billionaire businessman and political newcomer had beaten his rival…
Some Thoughts on The US Election
There was an unusual sense of de-ja-vu as I woke this morning. I would usually avoid the temptation to check my smartphone, at least until after breakfast, however today was slightly different… It would seem…